Articles

Egypt struggles as uprising's anniversary approaches

A report from Cairo

As Egypt prepares for next week’s anniversary of the January 25, 2011 uprising that forced President Hosni Mubarak from power, it’s clear many Americans have been left with an impression of the “Arab Spring” that is far different than what we actually saw in Cairo.

A country of 78 million people, Egypt is struggling.  The economy has taken a major hit over the last 12 months, with tourism down dramatically as television news footage of violence and protests continue to define the country in international eyes.  Major tourist sites are deserted.  Egyptair is carrying a fraction of the passenger load it did a year ago.  Gas lines pervaded the capital over the last four days as a sudden gasoline shortage went unexplained.

The most important development in recent months has been the success of Islamist and Salafist parties in the multi-stage elections for Parliament’s lower house.  Elections for the upper house and the presidency will take place in the coming weeks and months, and there is no reason to believe the religious parties will not continue to dominate at the ballot box.

Many Americans recall how the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall eventually led to elections in Eastern Europe that produced pro-Western governments determined to open markets, protect individual freedoms, and build relationships with the West.  

This history is not being repeated in Egypt.

In this country, advocates for successful economic formulas that have produced strong economic growth and improved the quality of life in countries ranging from Poland to South Korea are, unfortunately, extremely rare in this country.  
The Index of Economic Freedom, an important predictor of future economic growth produced by the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal, ranks Egypt at 100, between Brazil and Nicaragua.  There are few indicators that Islamist parties will improve Egypt’s score, and thus open the doors to the growth this country badly needs.  GDP per capita is just $6,354.

One well-informed leader I met with in Cairo provided insight as to how members of minority groups, such as the Coptic Christians, will fare under a new Islamist government.  “Overt acts of violence will decline.  Those in power will not want to be connected to such things.  But social and legal pressures will increase.”  He cited an example: “They may pass a law requiring the wearing of the hijab, but provide an exception for Christians.  This would instantly allow for Christian women to be immediately identified on the street, leading to discrimination.”

Precisely how far Islamist parties will go in moving the country in terms of social policy and personal freedoms is unclear.  Egypt is not Saudi Arabia, with its strict interpretation of Islam and limits on the rights of women.  Walking down the streets of Cairo, one sees a blend of the modern and traditional, and it's likely Islamist parties will meet popular resistance if they attempt to move the country in too radical a direction.  The country's economy desperately needs the return of European, American and Asian tourists, many of whom could be dissuaded from visiting by the imposition of fundamentalist rules.   

Regional implications of a change in Egyptian foreign and defense policies could be serious, coming at a time of heightened tensions between the West and Iran over its nuclear program, chaos in Syria, and an uncertain future in Iraq.  The Muslim Brotherhood has long standing anti-Israel views, and the leaders of its political arm have made clear their intent to take action as it relates to what they call the “Zionist entity.”  Since the 1979 Camp David peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, the United States has provided each country with billions in military aid, making changes in the Cairo government’s attitude toward its neighbor a major potential problem for Washington policymakers.  

As we watch the developments in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and other countries impacted by the “Arab Spring,” it’s vital to keep in mind that “democracy” requires much more than just elections.  A commitment to the protection of individual liberties (speech, assembly religion, etc), political pluralism, and economic freedoms are all essential to a democratic system.  Radical Islamist groups such as Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank have demonstrated a propensity to win elections then immediately begin dismantling or distorting nascent democratic institutions and restricting personal freedoms.

Egypt is a major regional player, and the country has tremendous untapped potential.  Unfortunately, the lack of competent, competitive political parties in Egypt that would advance free market economic freedoms, protect individual liberties, and promote tolerance and pluralism are absent.  The result has turned Egypt’s elections into a tremendous missed opportunity.  

CAUSE FOR HOPE

Perhaps the most encouraging sign in Egypt is the nascent Egyptian Union of Liberal Youth (EULY).  This small group, operating out of a cramped office in downtown Cairo, embodies the principles essential to a modern, open, and democratic society: free market economic policies, limited government, individual liberty, and peace.  

I met with Amr Bargisi, a member of EULY’s leadership team, over dinner to discuss recent developments and the outlook for the future.  Bargisi, who works as an interpreter and is busy translating the works of conservative thinkers such as Hayek and Friedman into Arabic, is blunt in his criticism of Egypt’s non-Islamist parties.  “They have no core philosophy, and they did not even field enough candidates in the system they had advocated for,” he said.

According to Bargisi, Western media tends to generalize when reporting on developments in Egypt, referring to all non-Islamist parties as “liberal,” when in reality they are a medley of groups that ranges from socialists to supporters of the old Mubarak regime.  “They are liberals without liberalism,” he says.  (In the Egyptian context, “liberal” refers to advocates of personal liberty and free economic policies).  

EULY’s agenda for Egypt is as comprehensive as it is bold.  In economic policy the group is making the case for privatization, an end to subsidies, free trade, competitive markets, tax reform, and a sound legal system.  Confronting anti-Semitism, resolving sectarian conflicts, promoting individual identity together with philanthropy and civic virtue are all subjects of the group’s active engagement programs.

The modern conservative movement in America was born out of the 1964 presidential campaign of Barry Goldwater, and for many years constituted a minority even within the Republican Party.  Yet today, twice as many Americans self-identify as conservative than liberal, and conservatives are routinely elected to office at every level.  Hopefully, this example will provide encouragement to the small group of Egyptians who today are attempting to build a similar movement in their country.

Click here for a photographic walking tour of Tahrir Square.

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